Airline Industry

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The scale and scope of airline companies are from those with a single airplane carrying mail or cargo, through full-service international airlines operating many hundreds of airplanes in various types. Airline services can be categorized as being intercontinental, intracontinental, regional or domestic and may be operated as scheduled services or charters. These variations in the types of airline companies, their operating scope, and the routes they serve makes analysis of the airline industry somewhat complex. Nevertheless, some patterns have emerged in the last 50 years of experience. The general pattern of ownership has gone from government owned or supported to independent, for-profit public companies. This occurs as regulators permit greater freedom, in steps that are usually decades apart. This pattern has not been completed for all airlines in all regions. The demand for air travel services is derived demand. That is, it depends on other things: business needs for cargo shipments, business passenger demand, leisure passenger demand, all influenced by macroeconomic activity in the markets under study. These patterns are highly seasonal, and often day-of-week, time-of-day, and even directionally variable. Notwithstanding these demand patterns, the overall trend of demand has been consistently increasing. In the 1950's and 1960's, annual growth rates of 15% or more were common. Annual growth of 5-6% persisted through the 1980's and 1990's. Growth rates are not consistent in all regions, but certainly areas where deregulation provided more competition and greater pricing freedom resulted in lower fares and sometimes dramatic spurts in traffic growth. The U.S., Australia, Japan, Brazil, Mexico, and other markets exhibited this trend. The industry is cyclical. Four or five years of poor performance are followed by five or six years of gradually improving good performance. But profitability in the good years is generally low, in the range of 2-3% net profit after interest and tax. It is in this time that airlines begin paying for new generations of airplanes and other service upgrades they ordered to respond to the increased demand. Since 1980, the industry as a whole has not even earned back the cost of capital during the best of times. Conversely, in bad times losses can be dramatically worse. As in many mature industries, consolidation is a trend, as airlines form new business combinations, ranging from loose, limited bilateral partnerships to long-term, multi-faceted alliances of groups of companies, to equity arrangements between companies, to actual mergers or takeovers. Since governments often restrict ownership and merger between companies in different countries, we see most consolidation taking place within a country. In the U.S., over 200 airlines have been merged, taken over, or simply gone out of business since deregulation began in 1978. Many international airline managers are actively lobbying their governments to permit greater consolidation, in order to achieve higher economies of scale and greater efficiencies.

Development of airlines post-1945
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As governments met to set the standards and scope for an emergent civil air industry toward the end of the war, it was no surprise that the U.S. took a position of maximum operating freedom. After all, U.S. airline companies were not devastated by the war, as European companies and the few Asian companies had been. This preference for "open skies" operating regimes continues, within limitations, to this day. World War II, like World War I, brought new life to the airline industry. Many airlines in the Allied countries were flush from lease contracts to the military, and foresaw a future explosive demand for civil air transport, for both passengers and cargo. They were eager to invest in the newly emerging flagships of air travel such as the Boeing Stratocruiser, Lockheed Constellation, and Douglas DC-6. Most of these new aircraft were based on American bombers such as the B-29, which had spearheaded research into new technologies such as pressurization. Most offered increased efficiency from both added speed and greater payload. In the 1950s, the De Havilland Comet, Boeing 707, Douglas DC-8, and Sud Aviation Caravelle became the first flagships of the Jet Age in the West, while the Soviet Union bloc countered with the Tupolev Tu-104 and Tupolev Tu-124 in the fleets of state-owned carriers such as Aeroflot and Interflug. The Vickers Viscount and Lockheed L-188 Electra inaugurated turboprop transport. The next big boost for the airlines would come in the 1970s, when the Boeing 747, McDonnell Douglas DC-10, and Lockheed L-1011 inaugurated widebody ("jumbo jet") service, which is still the standard in international travel. The Tupolev Tu-144 and its Western counterpart, Concorde, made supersonic travel a reality. In 1972, Airbus began producing Europe's most commercially successful line of airliners to date. The added efficiencies for these aircraft were often not in speed, but in passenger capacity, payload, and range. With deregulation in the U.S. beginning in 1978, barriers to entry were lowered for new entrants. Typically, a new wave of start-ups would enter during downturns in the normal 8-10 year business cycle. At that time, they find aircraft, financing, hangar and maintenance services, training all relatively inexpensive, and laid off staff from other companies eager and willing to take a job with the new company. Alas, as the business cycle returned to normalcy, major airlines were able to dominate their routes through aggressive pricing and additional capacity offerings, often swamping the new startup. Only America West Airlines (now known as USAirways) has remained as a significant survivor from this new entrant era, as dozens, even hundreds, have gone under. In many ways, the biggest winner in the deregulated environment was the air passenger. Indeed, the U.S. witnessed an explosive growth in demand for air travel, as many millions who had never or rarely flown before became regular fliers, even joining frequent flyer loyalty programs and receiving free flights and other benefits from their flying. New services and higher frequencies meant that business fliers could fly to another city, do business, and return the same day, for almost any points in the country. Air travel's advantages put intercity bus lines under pressure, and most have withered away. By the 1980's, almost half of the total flying in the world took place in the U.S., and today the domestic industry operates over 10,000 daily departures nationwide. Toward the end of the century, a new style of low cost airline was seen, offering a consistent, often high-quality product, using new aircraft models, at a price that was well-received. JetBlue, AirTran Airways, and other companies represented a serious challenge to legacy carriers, as their counterparts in Europe, Canada, and Asia did to legacy carriers in those regions. Their commercial viability also represented a serious cost threat to employees at legacy airlines, as they set the standard for wage rates in the industry that were a fraction of the prevailing wage. Thus the last 50 years of the airline industry have varied from reasonably profitable, to devastatingly depressed. As the first major market to deregulate the industry in 1978, U.S. airlines have experienced more turbulence than almost any other country or region. Today, airlines representing approximately one-half of total U.S. seat capacity are operating under Chapter 11 bankruptcy provisions.